We had a great time at our meeting! However, we had only 3 attendees this time. In fact, as we have had fewer and fewer turnouts, I have been thinking twice about arranging these meetings at all. Perhaps it was the timing this time (being a few days after Thanksgiving), but I must admit I was very much embarrassed with the turnout this time. The following is certainly not directed to those who do and have attended regularly. In particular, I want to thank Jeff Harrington not only for his individual contribution to the discussions but also for his efforts to increase attendance at our meetings.
Let’s go into the reason why I decided to arrange these meetings in the first place. I have been speaking with people like Kevin Day and Tom Murphy along with a host of other VIPs of sorts (executives of major corporations, associates of billionaire families, venture capitalists, visionaries, university professors, etc.), and have gained tremendously by my conversations with them. I felt that if I could get these people in front of those who may not have access to them, then others could also gain as I have. Kevin, in his prime, was a vice-president of one of the largest conglomerates in US history and has taken probably more than a hundred trips around the world throughout the last four decades; and when he takes out his time and effort to share his knowledge and perspective at our meetings, and only one person after myself shows up, I feel it to be a disgrace on my part! After the dismal attendance at our meeting today, I don’t know whether I really want to invite Kevin Day, Tom Murphy, or Vance Hall or any other VIP, if only a couple of people show up to appreciate what they have to offer.
Another reason for these meetings is to become more aware and conscientious human beings. Historically, wars, acts of terrorism, social strife, etc. can only be perpetuated time and again as long as most people remain voluntarily ignorant to the facts and therefore fail to act upon the issues at hand. This is the very reason why we have a speculative bubble roughly every 10-20 years because people choose not to learn from the past. The biggest losers are, therefore, the average worker and his/her 401k, or the day-trader who quits his/her job overnight to pursue millionaire-dom. In my opinion, voluntary ignorance was also the reason for the September 11th attacks, as American citizens failed to be aware of how our government was affecting the rest of the world and how our actions abroad might inevitably affect us at home. As long as the current generation remains apathetic, like those preceding ours, there will be no end to our problems. Perhaps, I must be an alien inhabiting earth and maybe it is only me in this world that actually sees this and wants to do something about it, but my hope is that you all see this too and want to do something about it also.
I would like you all to think about and consider the bigger picture here. Politicians, historically, are not really there to solve our problems; the truth of the matter is that we put them there because we don’t want to make the important decisions. The choice is ours, obviously. We will all collectively decide what kind of world we want to live in and leave for our children. But the first step, in my opinion, is to become aware of the problems first. I don’t think we get together to truly devise solutions to worldwide issues, but to just become aware of them. This awareness will spread invariably to others around you and become a new consciousness in itself, over time. Even if we cannot do anything about it, we’d rather be aware than be willfully ignorant. However, if I have misjudged your characters and motivations, then I apologize, and maybe I am asking too much.
In any case, as a result of the declining attendance at our meetings, I have decided, after consulting Kevin and Tommy, that there will be no meetings during the month of December for the holidays, and we will have our next meeting on January 4th, 2009. If this meeting fails to draw a sizable attendance, then I don’t feel like my time and effort is being utilized and that will be the end of the meetings. Perhaps you could leave some comments/suggestions and let me know what I could/should do to increase attendance at our meetings.
Kevin’s Trip To Tunisia
Kevin recently returned from his trip to Tunisia and he narrated a most extraordinary incident that occurred to him. Once while their tour bus was driving, a barrage of baseball-size stones broke the windows and were aimed at the tourists inside, some of them incurring serious injuries. Kevin explained how this came from local dissenters of foreigners and how he felt that his life was in serious danger. He has been to Tunisia many times to study the archaeological ruins of old Roman cities that have been preserved there and has noticed a growing anti-foreign influence throughout the decades.
The Obama Administration
Obama is a smart and capable politician. However, his supporters may feel betrayed after they find that Obama is not going to be able to deliver on a majority of his promises. It was interesting to note that his presidential acceptance speech was the first time he mentioned that really long-term nature of the problems he is confronting, mentioning how it may take more than one term to implement his solutions. His assumed appointment of Hilary to Secretary of State will effectively kill her ambition for running against him for his second term. Kevin, however, although lauding Obama for his political acumen, questions whether Hilary is the right person for the job. She has the reputation for being vehemently anti- North Korea, Pakistan, and Palestine, and keeping her country’s well being first might not come easy to her nor will it be easy to convince these countries that the US has their best interest in mind. Obama will probably pass a bill to uphold the rights of unions to satisfy a large constituent that elected him. Kevin thinks that Geithner was a good choice for Secretary of Treasury. As Fed President for New York, he was also a key player in rescuing Bear Stearns; Wall Street right now is looking for an assurance of trust and confidence and Geithner may provide this role. There is a quick question that we have for you all as we did not know the answer: for any reason if Obama is killed before Inauguration Day, who would become President? As Biden has been elected Vice-President would he be eligible to become President? Or would there be some other course of action? It is clear that Biden would become President should something happen to Obama after he is inaugurated, but what about before his inauguration? If you know the answer, please post a comment and let us know as we are curious what the answer might be.
Goldbug Thesis
Kevin, who has been trading the market for over 40 years, made it very clear that the occurrences in the financial markets in the last three months have frightened him. He has described himself as the “last optimist on Wall Street”, but admits that for the first time in 40 years, his nerves have been shaken recently. He spoke to us about how banks have been unwilling to part with his deposits and have effectively frozen his assets in some cases as they are all straining for cash. With the FED pumping trillions of dollars into the system which further depreciates the currency, hard assets like precious metals may be a good investment to preserve value. He has suggested investing in a gold etf like GLD or SLV as these funds actually hold physical gold and silver deposits. He also thinks that the next asset class to decline is commercial real estate; his time horizon for this to start occurring is within the next 6 months.
Recent Intelligence Report
There was a recent intelligence report purporting a decline of American influence around the world and a massive transfer of wealth to China and India in the next 30 years. This, however, is an exaggeration. Both China and India have a long way to go and can hardly approach the industrial giant that America is today. The recent bombings in Mumbai are an indication of how much progress needs to be made. Sixty hours after the initial shootings, Mumbai police were still not able to kill off the terrorists. Kevin called it the “British officer” syndrome; the appearance of officials looking official, but are, in fact, very incapable when action is required. 45% of the Chinese labor force and 60% of the Indian labor force is engaged in agriculture today, while less than 4% of Americans are engaged in the same trade. If one has ever been to India or China, then one can readily see the stark day-and-night differences between urban city life and rural village life. Prosperity stays in the cities and has not trickled outside of them.
The Arbitrary in “Relationships”
After we ended our meeting, Tommy and I went to a Starbucks to discuss some very fundamental issues of the human condition. Our discussions revolved mostly around the inherent fallacy of “relationships” (between a man and woman, etc.), and how they inherently cannot be sustained. Most times it is not the person itself we are interested in, but the fulfillment of an idea or promise of what a person might be. For example, first dates are only an exchange of impressions, not of the actual person itself. For example, one might find a woman attractive in a black dress, etc., but that same woman does not assume the same attractiveness when she must perform the necessities on the toilet. In fact, what is considered “attractive” is completely arbitrary. The Chinese during the Han dynasty found women who bound their feet to be very attractive (foot-binding is a practice in which a girl literally binds up her feet so that the bone structure is smaller in adulthood). There is nothing inherently “sexy” about red lips on a woman or muscled chest on a man. The body and the ideas about it have nothing to do with the actual person itself. The actuality of the person itself is ignored altogether. After the “honeymoon” stage, people cannot keep up the act of impressions forever and are forced to deal with the person as he/she is, which may be very different from the expectation or initial impression of the person. This is not to be confused with a real relationship where the actual person is concerned and there is merely the joy of being with that person irrespective of external features (gender, attributes, etc). In such a case, people are upfront and honest about themselves and no value judgments are made about the person, but is merely accepted as he/she is.
